In comparison here to, the number of eligible voters excludes all people who are not allowed to vote:. Since neither the Bureau of Census nor any other organisation can define with complete accuracy exactly how many eligible voters there are in the United States 14 , this study will concern itself with data referring to the VAP.
The second question in reference to the people the study is interested in, is that of registration. There is a significant difference if a person did not register and consequently did not vote or if a person actually registered but then did not vote.
There might be a difference in registration turnout between the different education categories, but not a difference in turnout among those registered. In the end it might turn out that education does not affect voting turnout but actually registration turnout. Therefore this study will be concerned as well with overall voter turnout of the educational categories as with their registration rates as with the turnout among those who have registered.
Considering this new intervening variable, the hypothesis will have to be revised to The more formal education a person has received, the more likely that person is to register and even more likely vote. The next step in proving this hypothesis true is to come up with a research design that shows how the goals of the study are intended to be fulfilled This includes the collection and interpretation of data.
There are two ways of data collection that would suit this sort of study. On the one hand, it might be possible to obtain interview data for primary analysis by face-to-face questioning.
On the other hand though, one could also conduct analysis of data, which is based on surveys and interviews by other scholars or organisations. The latter method might save time and money but it is possible that the existing data does not fit the needs of the survey. If one were to conduct a survey on the connection between education and turnout, the first step would be drafting a questionnaire which elicits quickly and constantly the desired information.
A good questionnaire has well-worded questions and appropriate question types and question order The questions should not be ambiguous, double-barreled, vague, leading or inappropriate. The question type most appropriate for this survey is the closed-ended one. Close-ended questions provide the respondent with a set of answer to choose from. Successful completion of an interview or questionnaire is often directly connected to the order of questions.
Therefore the first few questions are so-called ice-breakers, general questions that can be easily answered such as demographic questions, while specific and personal question are to be put to the end. Another factor for the success of the survey lies in the questionnaire design and the way the survey is conducted. A questionnaire has not only to be self-explanative, but also easy and attractive to complete properly. While all of the three basic ways of conducting an interview - mailed questionnaire, telephone interview and personal interview - have their pros and cons, they all have one thing in common: they must produce a high response rate in order for the survey to be representative.
The questionnaire for this survey should start of with some general, demographic questions concerning age, gender and family with the following question about educational attainment bridging the way to the more specific and sensitive question:.
The other main questions of this survey would then be "Did you register to vote in the last federal election? One problem about this questionnaire though is its fixation on only two topics, education and voter turnout. Restricted representativeness and costs are further weaknesses of this potential survey. If the survey is to be representative it will not be enough just to interview the people in one neighbourhood.
People from all different demographic groups have to be interviewed. In order to do this, one would either have to spend a lot of money on telephone interviews and mailed questionnaires or hire trained and experienced interviewers to conduct personal interviews. Weighing the advantages of a primary analysis - formulation of questions best suited for the survey - against its disadvantages - high cost, high risk of terminating the interview - it would be more efficient, less expensive and less time consuming to turn to secondary analysis of existing data, collected by record keeping agencies such as US Census Bureau or the American National Election Studies NES.
The CPS is a monthly labor force survey in which interviews are conducted in approximately 48, households across the US. The large sample size of data of every demographic group, combined with the data concerning educational attainment, which is obtained. One of the major advantages of the CPS is the fact that it is not a survey just about political involvement and voting behaviour.
Since the questions about education, voting and registration make up just a small part of the survey, people are more likely to answer the question honestly, rather than overreporting on their turnout. A feeling of embarrassment for not voting is probably less likely to be arisen here than in a survey dealing just with voting behaviour. The use of this running record which covers a long time-span allows a longitudinal analysis 21 of the hypothesis while a single survey might produce a result which is just caused by short term forces at the time the survey is carried out.
Still, the CPS has its shortcomings too. One of it is the regular over-estimation of voter turnout. While the official turnout is based on the actual votes cast for the President, the CPS percentage records voting for any office or public issue. Sometimes, the data from the CPS or other surveys is not organised and weighed against each other in the way a study needs it to be.
In this case, data has to be combined and tabulated in the way suited best for the study. This is partly the case with the data in table , which was tabulated by the US Census Bureau from data obtained through the CPS over the years. Note: Prior to , data are for people 21 to 24 years of age with the exception of those aged 18 to 24 in Georgia and Kentucky, 19 to 24 in Alaska, and 20 to 24 in Hawaii.
The data in table allows us to answer the question if the first hypothesis - The more formal education a person has received, the more likely that person is to vote - is true or not tentatively speaking, it is true and it shows that the same is true for registration rates. However, it does not directly prove the revised hypothesis The more formal education a person has received, the more likely that person is to register and even more likely vote to be true or false, for it there is no direct data of turnout for those who registered.
It is no problem though to calculate the desired percentages from the given data. The result would be result in a table like table A tentative conclusion drawn from this aggregated data is that the revised hypothesis is true: people with more years of formal education are not only more likely to register, but they are more likely to actually vote than registered people who received less education. This conclusion might be explained by the above mentioned proposals such as a feeling of civic duty or a higher interest in politics.
Of course, after collecting and evaluating all the data, it might have turned out that the hypothesis is proven wrong. In this case, the failure of the hypothesis has to be explained. One explanation that comes to mind is that of educated people realising that their preferred candidate has no chance of winning and therefore they do not vote or even register.
Recognition of the corruption of politics and a consequential turning away from it could be mentioned as another explanation.
If a hypothesis is proven wrong, it either has to be reformulated or totally abandoned and a new hypothesis has to be deduced. In this study, perhaps the opposite of the hypothesis is true and the less educated people are the more likely they are to vote because they are not as disillusioned about politics.
Another possible result is that there is no connection between voter turnout and education at all. Registration and voting percentages might be higher for a college graduate than for someone with a Bachelor's degree but their registration turnout could be below that of a high school graduate.
If this is the case, a new hypothesis concerning the relationship of two other variables e. Johnson, Janet Buttolph and Richard A. Political Science Research Methods 3rd ed. Washington D. Miller, Warren E. Merrill Shanks. The New American Voter. Cambridge: Harvard University Press, Teixiera, Ruy A. The Disappearing American Voter. Washington, D. Wolfinger, Raymond E.
Who votes?. New Haven: Yale University Press, Miller and J. Joslyn, Political Science Research Methods 3rd ed. Does education influence voter turnout? Bachelor Thesis, 9 Pages, Grade: S F Simon Feess Author. PDF version for only 0. Add to cart. Starting from here, this study will examine the particular effect education has on turnout. In what ways are the phenomena education and voter turnout connected? Since the relationship of those variables is one- directional - education might influence occupation or income, while it does not work the other way around - it is fair to put the emphasis on education.
After considering all those explanations, a hypothesis can be deduced. In comparison here to, the number of eligible voters excludes all people who are not allowed to vote: resident aliens, convicted felons and patients of mental institutions. The large sample size of data of every demographic group, combined with the data concerning educational attainment, which is obtained through the regular survey, makes this set of data the best suited for this study.
Table Reported Voted and Registered by Educational Attainment: November to Abbildung in dieser Leseprobe nicht enthalten Note: Prior to , data are for people 21 to 24 years of age with the exception of those aged 18 to 24 in Georgia and Kentucky, 19 to 24 in Alaska, and 20 to 24 in Hawaii. Registration data were not collected in the Current Population Survey.
NA Not available. States have also shown a strong inclination to cut higher education first when budgets are tight. The federal government, with its borrowing power, almost has to be involved in any major spending effort. Inequality is real and fast-rising issue, and one of the key concerns among Democrats.
Income inequality is partly caused by unequal educational opportunity though not as much as some education advocates would have it. Early childhood education is also a factor in gender-based income inequality since child care and early education are central to allowing women—still the primary caregivers—to have equal access to opportunities in the labor market. More so than other issues, because most people interact with public education in some way, education positions can be used to attract support from very specific constituencies.
Want to attract younger voters? Promise more money for higher education, like free college and loan forgiveness. Want to attract African-Americans? Support for historically black colleges and universities. Want to attract rural voters? Create a rural education proposal. Want to attract women? Focus on early childhood education. Education is the Swiss army knife of policy and politics. In the early s, voters with more formal education voted fairly equally for Democrats and Republicans.
It stands to reason that voters with more formal education are especially likely to see education as an important policy issue. Education is also more of a pocketbook issue for women, who also vote disproportionately for Democrats. DeVos is one of the more reviled figures in what is, for Democrats, a highly reviled Trump administration. Not that it matters for purposes here, but her ideas also lack research support to recommend them.
For all of these reasons, education will be a major issue on the minds of Democratic voters. One poll has it among the top five issues for Democratic voters.
Only health care beats it and only slightly. This rising importance may also be long-lasting. The first seven factors above seem like structural changes, unlikely to shift with the political winds.
Reinforcing this point, the candidates are coming out with major education policy proposals on an almost daily basis more to come in later posts. The rising importance of education as an issue in the party is not the only reason that it will matter more in For more on the importance of education in the upcoming election, read this piece that focuses on the state of the Democratic primary and teacher unions.
Brown Center Chalkboard. The Brown Center Chalkboard launched in January as a weekly series of new analyses of policy, research, and practice relevant to U. In July , the Chalkboard was re-launched as a Brookings blog in order to offer more frequent, timely, and diverse content. Contributors to both the original paper series and current blog are committed to bringing evidence to bear on the debates around education policy in America.
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